Our Terminology.

Prediction

Your best guess about something that will happen, with a number from 1% to 99% for how likely you think it is. It must be made before the deadline.

Why it matters. Only predictions our own clock recorded before the answer is known can be scored.

Answered question

A question whose answer is in. We checked it at the public place named in advance and recorded Yes, No or Cancelled.

Why it matters. Scores are built only from answered questions.

Your record

Your full list of predictions, with dates, links, answers and scores.

Why it matters. Every rank and every title links back to the record behind it.

Accuracy score

A number from 0 to 100 for how close your predictions were to what happened. Higher is better. Always predicting 50% earns 50. The highest possible score is 99, because predictions run from 1% to 99%. It is not a percent correct: an 80 does not mean 80% right. It combines all your answered questions, including predictions that are not shown publicly.

Why it matters. It lets anyone compare players on the same scale. The formula is 100 × (1 − the square root of your average Brier score), and it is on the Scoreboard page.

Brier score

A standard way to measure accuracy that statisticians use. Lower is better. We use it under the hood and show it to you as the 0 to 100 accuracy score.

Why it matters. The order of the rankings is the same either way.

Matching reality

Whether your numbers hold up over time. Of the predictions you said 70% on, about 70 in 100 should come true.

Why it matters. A player who matches reality can be trusted to mean what they say.

Minimum

The number of answered questions you need before you are ranked or named.

Why it matters. A few lucky predictions can look brilliant. The minimum keeps one hot streak from making a champion.

Early card

A card shown before you reach the minimum number of answered questions.

Why it matters. It tells readers the record is still too short to rank.

Cancelled

The event was cancelled or ruled invalid under the question’s rule. The prediction is left out of scores, with a public note. A question is also cancelled if it is still undecided by its resolution date.

Why it matters. Cancelled questions do not help or hurt anyone.

Time record

The date and time of your prediction, set by our own server clock.

Why it matters. It proves your prediction existed before the answer. We do not copy time records from anywhere else.

Deadline

The one cut-off time shared by every player on a question. If the question’s named source publishes the answer earlier, the question closes at that moment, and later entries do not count.

Why it matters. Nobody gets a later look at the news than anyone else.

Freeze window

You can change a prediction at no cost until 24 hours before the deadline. Then it is frozen: no new predictions are accepted either, and the last update before the freeze is the one scored.

Why it matters. It rewards you for updating on new facts, and stops late changes once the answer is nearly known.

Resolution date

The last day the answer can come in. If the event is cancelled or still undecided by then, the question is cancelled.

Why it matters. It stops a question from staying open forever.

Where we check

The public place that decides the answer. It is named before the question opens.

Why it matters. Nobody can pick the source after the answer is known.

Market

One of the topic areas on Profety, such as Elections, Movies & Box Office or Airlines & Airports. Markets are grouped in categories, and more open in waves. On conventional prediction-market sites, a market is a single question that people trade.

Why it matters. Each market has its own scoreboard and can have its own sponsor.

Topic

A narrower subject inside a market. Each topic belongs mainly to one market.

Why it matters. Topics keep questions easy to find without counting them twice.

Community question

A question suggested by a member. We review it against the question standards and publish it as “Suggested by [display name]”.

Why it matters. It lets members help shape the questions while the quality stays high. A suggested question counts for everyone except the member who suggested it.

Question standards

The four tests a suggested question has to meet: a clear answer, a fixed deadline, a public source and a fit with a market.

Why it matters. Every question is judged on these, whoever suggests it.

Member

Anyone who has joined at no cost: an individual, an agency or a sponsor.

Why it matters. Members choose a display name or handle, which is public.

Display name

The name or handle you choose when you join. It is public, so people can find you.

Why it matters. Your record stays private unless a prediction is among the best or you share it.

Sponsored by

The label on a question funded by a sponsor.

Why it matters. Every question is chosen on the same standards, whoever suggests it, and scores come from the same method for everyone.

Not a broker

Profety does not take orders, hold money or send trades anywhere. It scores predictions.

Why it matters. None of the broker, fee, payout or regulation words in Part 2 apply to us.

Followers

The audience size you report, shown for information.

Why it matters. Followers do not change a score, a rank or an award.

Best prediction

One of the best-scoring predictions on a question, once the answer is in. Best predictions are announced with the member’s display name.

Why it matters. Other predictions stay private unless their owner shares them.

Private ID

An optional short code, such as PF-7K2Q, that appears instead of your name if you prefer to stay anonymous. You can also use an alias, a name that is not your own.

Why it matters. Only the owner can see which ID is theirs.

Award winner

A member named for one of the four titles, from Best Track Record to Best Forecasting Team or Model.

Why it matters. Every title comes from the same record and the same scoring.

Editors' Set

About ten events chosen by our editors each quarter across the markets, so everyone can be compared on the same questions.

Why it matters. Members choose their own questions, so the set is the fair basis for Best Track Record and Rising Predictor.

House forecast

An AI forecast published by Profety, always labeled AI and shown apart from members. It is entered before the deadline without using other members’ numbers.

Why it matters. It gives members a benchmark to beat. It does not come from a member, it does not count toward any minimum, and it cannot win a title.

Contestant

A member who has entered at least 70% of the quarter's Editors' Set events that are not cancelled (7 of 10, rounded up) and so can win Best Track Record and Rising Predictor.

Why it matters. Skipping the set keeps you on every scoreboard, but you are not a contestant for those two titles that quarter. On the set, an event you skipped counts as a 50% prediction, so everyone is compared on the same events.

Prediction of the Quarter

A standout successful contrarian prediction: among answered questions with at least 30 members predicting, the highest-scoring prediction first entered in the first half of the question's open period, where the crowd average (not counting your own prediction) at the freeze, or just before an early close, was on the other side of 50%, and your scored entry stayed on the same side of 50% as your first. If nothing qualifies, it is not awarded.

Why it matters. It recognizes a successful call against the crowd. One call can still be lucky, so it is a recognition, not proof of skill.

Titleholder

The name for a winner of a Profety title.

Why it matters. It marks a named record that the score earned.

Proposed result

The answer we post, with its source linked, before it becomes final. Any member can flag it for 24 hours.

Why it matters. Scores are set only after the flag window closes, so a mistake can be caught first.

Review on request

You can ask us in writing to review a record. We pause its use while we check.

Why it matters. A ranking is fair when a record can be checked.

Prediction market

A site where people trade contracts tied to the outcome of an event. The prices are often read as the crowd’s view of how likely the event is.

Event contract

A contract whose value depends on whether a stated event happens.

Price

What a contract costs. It is often read as an estimate of the chance of the event.

Trader

A person who buys or sells contracts on such a site.

Exchange

The venue where contracts are listed and traded.

Broker

A company between the trader and the exchange, such as an app that routes orders. Profety is not a broker.

Settlement

The moment the outcome is decided and the contract is closed out.