Make your first prediction in 30 seconds. It’s Free.
1 · Pick a market
Each market has its own questions and its own scoreboard, from Elections and the Economy to Movies, Airlines and AI. More open as our audience grows.
2 · Make a prediction
Slide to how likely you think it is, from 1% to 99%, and lock it in. You can change your mind at no cost until 24 hours before the deadline, and your last update counts. Our own clock records the time.
3 · Wait for the deadline
Every question has one deadline for everyone. Predictions are frozen for the last 24 hours. If the answer is reported earlier, the question closes at that moment.
4 · See how you did
When the answer is in, the best predictions are announced by name, and your private card shows your own score.
What your score means. Your accuracy score runs from 0 to 100. Always predicting 50% earns 50. It is not a percent correct. The closer your numbers are to what really happens, the higher you climb. Details are on the Scoreboard page.
Changing your mind. You can update a prediction as often as you like, at no cost, until 24 hours before the deadline. Then new predictions and changes both close, so nobody enters or changes a number once the answer is all but known. Your scored prediction is your last update before the freeze, or before the answer was first reported if that came sooner. If an answer is clearly public elsewhere before the named source updates, we may pause new entries and review that gap.
Quarterly titles. Each quarter our editors choose about ten events, the Editors’ Set, so everyone can be compared on the same questions. Enter at least 70% of its events that are not cancelled (7 of 10, rounded up) to be a contestant for Best Track Record and Rising Predictor, which are scored on the whole set with any event you skipped counted as 50%. Skip the set and you stay on the scoreboards and can still win Prediction of the Quarter. A winner who stays anonymous is announced under their alias or private ID.
You decide who sees what.
Your name is public
You choose a display name or handle when you join, so people can find and follow you.
Only the best go public
On each question, the best predictions are announced. Everything else stays private unless you share it, and still counts toward your overall score. Your overall score is public only if you reach the top of a scoreboard. Nobody’s number is public before the answer is in.
Prefer to stay anonymous?
Choose a private ID or alias.
Leave when you like
Ask us to remove your profile, or to review a record, at any time.
Suggest a Question or Event
Questions work best with a clear answer, a deadline and a public source. All events or questions submitted require approval. Some topics are off limits: attacks, casualties, assassinations, betting lines or odds, and the health or death of named people.
Prototype. Nothing is sent, and the checks below are simplified.
Choose a market and a type of question. Then write the exact question, the deadline, a public place where the answer can be checked, and what happens if the event is cancelled.
We check every market, the dates, the link, duplicates and the list of off-limits topics. Fix anything marked with a cross.
An editor reviews each question against the question standards below, without the author’s name, and accepts, edits or declines it with a reason.
Accepted questions go live as “Suggested by [your display name]”, or anonymously if you prefer. You get a card to share.
Your question or event
Fix the items marked with a cross before sending.
Received. A person will now review it.
An editor will review it against the question standards and write back with the result.
Your question touches an area that gets an extra review before it goes live.
If cancelled or moved: {{pvVoid}}
Question standards
Every suggestion is reviewed on the same four standards.
A clear answer
The question has a Yes or No answer that anyone can check.
A fixed deadline
Predictions close at one exact time, before the answer is known.
A public source
The answer is decided at a named public place, such as an official site or tracker.
A market fit
The question belongs in one of the open markets.